Published Nov 14, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Universal | Release Date: 11/22/24 | Run Time: 161 Minutes
Musical. Misunderstood because of her green skin, a young woman named Elphaba forges an unlikely but profound friendship with Glinda, a student with an unflinching desire for popularity. Following an encounter with the Wizard of Oz, their relationship soon reaches a crossroad as their lives begin to take very different paths. …Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh
Screening Notes
Wicked brings the magic of Oz to life with an epic storyline that fans have been waiting for…must admit, I went into the screening skeptical at the hefty runtime and irritated the film was broken into 2-parts, which always drives me crazy – I want a beginning and an end in one experience! I was wrong. Of course, the long runtime is a pain for operations to grind a decent programming schedule, particularly if you are not a megaplex and don’t have multiple screens to save you, but, as a moviegoer, the time moves quickly (well, the 161-minute runtime may make the youngest moviegoers squirm a little). As for only being “part one”, audiences will quickly appreciate the story is just too “big” for one film, there is just so much to tell!
Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo are the movie’s heartbeat; audiences will love their chemistry, strong on-screen presence, and depth they bring to these iconic roles…their friendship and struggles feel very real and relatable. The cinematography is visually stunning and immersive. While Wicked does an excellent job expanding the story behind the Broadway hit to meet the needs of the big screen, there are just a couple of scenes that could have benefited from a bit tighter pace, especially for moviegoers who might not be die-hard fans of a musical. Still, for moviegoers AND fans of the original Broadway musical, it’s a memorable and well-executed adaptation worth the trip!
Boxoffice Estimate
Wicked has some serious promotional street cred and muscle to tap into…a beloved story and characters, with a massive fanbase: the book was published 124 years ago, the original movie released 85 years ago; the play debuted 20-years ago and is the 4th longest running show on Broadway and the 2nd highest grossing musical behind Lion King; Ariana Grande was the 1st woman to top 200M followers on Instagram and now totals over 375M…throw in Facebook and a few other sites, and she tracks as the 5th most-followed person on social media in the world, and let’s not forget her numerous music awards; also, we can add-in a few actor name-drops, like Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, and Peter Dinklage. And if that’s not enough, there are the flying monkeys…
NRG Awareness tracking for Wicked is strong, hovering near 90, which historically points to an opening weekend of around $90M. Factor in the added promotional boost noted above and the holiday timing, and my modeling points to a $121M opening, with a range between $109M and $133M. The film should produce an average multiple of 3.5x, which would generate a final gross between $381M and $466M. If true, this would put the Wicked opening at -25% less than Barbie and +26% greater than Little Mermaid…and 4x greater than the average PG title opening in November over the past 8 years.
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