Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - AVATAR: FIRE & ASH (PG13)

Published Dec 18, 2025

Synopsis

Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 12/19/25 | Run Time: 197 Minutes

Adventure. Third title of a planned 5. The conflict on Pandora escalates as Jake and Neytiri's family encounter a new, aggressive Na'vi tribe…Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Stephen Lang, Kate Winslet

Screening Notes

James Cameron once again reminds everyone why this franchise sits in a category of its own. Visually stunning, mesmerizing and totally immersive like no other films. Oh, then overaly all that with a compelling story of character, conflict, and consequence. Avatar is designed for watching on the biggest screen possible…there is NO WAY the experience can ever be replicated at home, regardless of how large the flatscreen—and definitely NOT on a personal device. Side note, the 197-minute run time definitely presents operations with challenges in pushing an aggressive programming schedule, but the time will fly by for the audience.

Boxoffice Estimate

The Avatar franchise has been one of the most meaningful theatrical success stories of the modern era. The first two films rank among the top 10 highest-grossing titles in North American box office history and have generated more than $5 billion worldwide…both delivered opening-weekend multiples of more than 5x —nearly 70% higher than the roughly 3x multiple typical of a wide theatrical release. [Personally, I thought Fire & Ash the best of the series thus far]. National Research Group (NRG) tracking is hitting with a 95 Awareness Score, which typically translates into an opening weekend of $100M to $130M.

Taking all of the above into consideration, internal modeling suggests a $102M opening weekend, with a range between $92M and $112M. Positive word-of-mouth, the pole holiday positioning, and the historical success of the first two films, and the overall recent success of comparative blockbuster franchise titles, points to an estimated 5.7x multiple and a domestic total in the $520M to $636M range…and yes, even at 197 minutes there will be repeat business!

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