Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - UNBREAKABLE BOY (PG)

Published Feb 19, 2025

Synopsis

Distributed By: Lionsgate | Release Date: 2/21/25 | Run Time: 109 Minutes

Drama | True Story. When Scott and Teresa learn that their son, Austin, is autistic and has brittle bone disease, they initially worry about his future. However, with Scott's growing faith and Austin's incredible spirit, they become unbreakable as they find joy, gratitude and courage in the most trying times.…Zachary Levi, Meghann Fahy, Patricia Heaton, Jacob Laval

Screening Notes

Despite the seriousness of the subject matter (a family dealing with their young son’s autism and brittle bone disease) this is a touching, and uplifting film that should appeal to family audiences and those who enjoy inspirational, feel-good dramas. Similar to his roles in Harold and the Purple Crayon and American Underdog, Zachary Levi delivers a relatable, charming, and charismatic character. Although the story is heartwarming, the plot is a bit predictable, following a familiar trajectory of a family overcoming challenges.  

Boxoffice Estimate

Unbreakable Boy presents a solid opportunity for small and mid-size markets, particularly those that responded well to Jesus Revolution, Ordinary Angels, Champions, and American Underdog. Its uplifting message and strong performances should generate an RT Audience score in the mid-90’s. However, the distributor’s decision to release on only ~1,300 screens --- 53% fewer than comparable films --- is puzzling and will likely cap its box office potential.

Projection modeling points to a $5M opening, with a range between $4M and $6M.  My sense is audiences will be engaged and appreciative, generating positive word-of-mouth, particularly with moviegoers that enjoy inspirational storytelling. As a result, the film should produce a very respectable multiple of 3.6x, which will yield a final gross between $15M and $19M. If true, the -53% less screens will result in an opening weekend gross -40% less than the comparative set of titles.