Published May 4, 2022
Synopsis
Distributor: Paramount | Release Date: 5/27/22 | Run time: 131 Minutes
After more than 30 years of service as one of the Navy's top aviators, Pete "Maverick" Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. Training a detachment of graduates for a special assignment, Maverick must confront the ghosts of his past and his deepest fears, culminating in a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those who choose to fly it.
Screening Notes
Finally! Originally slated for release on Jul 12, 2019, we have been patiently waiting a very loooong 1,027 days for this moment. In May 1986, I had just started as a young-pup manager trainee at AMC’s Oak Park Mall 6 in Kansas City. There was a lot of buzz about a new Tom Cruise movie, so I was crushed to learn it was going to our arch-rival, the Glenwood, and we would be opening Money Pit and Police Academy 3 (combined, Top Gun more than doubled our gross). As much as I hated the Glenwood management teams constant taunts, that “the Glenwood is THE Glenwood”, I must admit, watching Top Gun on their 70’ x 35’ screen was an eye-popping experience that is still seared into my brain 36 years later.
Fast-forward to May 2022 and Top Gun is still a cult classic with a timeless “cool-factor” that is amazingly recaptured in Top Gun: Maverick. The film’s storyline is relevant to today’s world, has an appealing, young supporting cast, pays tribute to the original film and characters, and the flying sequences are stunning (according to the Director, to ensure it perfect, they shot more flying footage then was shot in the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy). And just like with the original film, today’s audience will be cheering and clapping at the end. Variety magazine’s headline, post the Apr. 28 screening at CinemaCon, was spot-on…”Top Gun Sequel The Perfect Blockbuster And Terrific In Every Conceivable Way.”
Boxoffice Estimate
To secure the boxoffice success this film deserves, Top Gun’s challenge is two-fold: (1) if anyone can get the 50+ crowd (the last demographic COVID-holdout) up off the couch and FINALLY back in theatres, it has to be Maverick and (2) will the 18 to 34-year-old segment be as excited about this film as the 18 to 34 year-olds were in 1986.
Let’s set aside the above concerns, knowing Paramount’s marketing team will work their usual magic. My modeling lands at an opening weekend totaling $108M, with a range between $97M and $119M. Despite Dinosaurs, Minions and Thor nipping at its heels post-opening, Exhibitors should still enjoy a STRONG 3.8x multiple leading to a total gross between $370M and $453M. Note that a $108M opening weekend would rank as Tom’s largest opening weekend EVER, generating 76% more than Mission Impossible: Fallout (’18) ($61.2M), which was his highest opening Mission Impossible film and #2 overall, behind War of the Worlds (’05) ($64.9M). Also, as a refresher, since January 2020 there have only been two (2) films to open with at least a $100M weekend and only thirteen (13) since January 2018. With Dr. Strange, Top Gun and Jurassic World now in the chute, three (3) new films will be added to the list within the next 35 days!
Oh, and by the way, the original Top Gun domestic total of $180M equals $460M in today’s dollars…
Click to Watch Trailer !
コメント