Published Oct 9, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Briarcliff | Release Date: 10/11/24 | Run Time: 120 Minutes
Drama | Biopic. In the 1970s, Donald Trump seeks independence from his father's influence. With notorious lawyer Roy Cohn's support, he enters Manhattan real estate and becomes a leader.........Sebastian Stan, Jeremy Strong, Maria Bakalova
Screening Notes
Unusual for a film that dramatizes the life of an actual person to not spend any time explaining who Donald Trump is, and instead assumes [rightfully] the audience is already familiar with him, jumping right into his life as a young, ambitious businessman from the mid-70’s to mid-80’s. The portrayal of young Trump as a charming, but very awkward, entitled, and obnoxious fledgling real estate mogul will undoubtedly ignite a lot of debate, particularly since, as the film opens, the presidential election will only be 26 days away. My sense is audiences will be surprised at the profound impact the notorious lawyer/fixer, Roy Cohn, had in shaping the clear characteristics of the Trump we see today…I sure was. The film doesn’t shy away from the controversial aspects of Trump’s life, both real-life and allegations…it’s pretty unflinching. Sebastian Stan plays Trump well and Jeremy Strong definitely turns up the creepster-dial.
Boxoffice Estimate
No way around it, this is going to be a controversial film. Supporters are going to be livid and dismissive as all fiction; opponents are going to scream it left a lot out and didn’t go far enough. There will be plenty of buzz about this film and with the inherent controversy swirling around it, I believe the curious (from both sides of the political spectrum) will turnout.
Expected to open on less than 2,000 screens, my modeling points to a $9M opening, with a tight range between $8M and $10M. The film should produce a strong multiple of 4.2x, which should generate a final gross between $35M and $44M. The projected opening is -53% less than the average R-rated title opening in Oct over the past 8 years, but it is also opening on -42% less screens. On an inflation adjusted basis, the projections fall closely in line with Vice, which opened to $9.7M in today’s $$.
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