
Published Feb 4, 2025
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony | Release Date: 2/14/25 | Run Time: 116 Minutes
Based on the bestselling children’s book series. When Paddington discovers his beloved aunt has gone missing from the Home for Retired Bears, he and the Brown family head to the jungles of Peru to find her…Emily Mortimer, Hugh Bonneville, Olivia Colman, Ben Whishaw, Antonio Banderas
Screening Notes
Combining live action with animation, when done well, can be a lot of fun, particularly watching younger kids mesmerized by the on-screen happenings…think Sonic 3, IF, Lyle Lyle Crocodile. Just like the two previous films in the Paddington franchise, Peru is a feel-good movie that provides family audiences a positive storyline, charming characters, and heartwarming moments that will simply make you smile…audiences will leave the auditorium feeling much better than when they arrived.
Boxoffice Estimate
Thru the first 5 weeks of 2025, animated films have captured 4 of the top 5 grossing slots and accounted for 40% of the boxoffice (Moana 2, Sonic 3, Mufasa, Dog Man)…and three of those films opened pre-Christmas. As Paddington opens, the 4th title, Dog Man, will have opened two weeks prior, so the market would seem well-positioned for fresh quality family entertainment...and enjoy the added boost of a four-day Holiday Weekend.
NRG Awareness for Paddington is currently tracking at 72 and “first choice” at 35…for context, Dog Man was tracking at this same level and opened to $36M --- +20% more than projected. Looking back at 250 recent titles, those NRG numbers would suggest an opening in the neighborhood of $25M. Oh, and let’s not forget to add that the hugely popular Paddington books series was first published in 1958 and generated 29 books, selling 40 million copies!
Taking all this into consideration, projection modeling points to a $22M opening, with a range between $20M and $24M. The film should produce a multiple of 3.4x, which will generate a final gross between $67M and $82M. While projected to open -38% less than the average wide release PG title in Feb over the past 9 years [which includes Sonic 1 ($58M), How to Train Your Dragon ($55), and Lego Batman ($53M)], the opening is a solid +13% greater than the recent Comp set of titles and 2x greater than the opening of Paddington 2 ($11M).


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