Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - MICKEY 17 (R)

Published Mar 4, 2025

Synopsis

Distributed By: Warner Bros | Release Date: 3/7/25 | Run Time: 137 Minutes

Sci-fi | Comedy. A disposable employee is sent on a human expedition to colonize the ice world Niflheim. After one iteration dies, a new body is regenerated with most of his memories intact..…Robert Pattinson, Mark Ruffalo, Toni Collette

Screening Notes

Mickey 17 is an ambitious, high-concept sci-fi thriller that delivers stunning visuals, dark humor, and thought-provoking themes. Fans of Blade Runner, The Matrix, and Mad Max—especially those who enjoy a dose of grim humor and satire—should find plenty to appreciate. Robert Pattinson shines as a dim-witted but oddly endearing protagonist, while Mark Ruffalo brings the creepy factor as a fanatical leader. The film presents fascinating ideas and has the potential to become a cult favorite, though it’s not a fast-paced action spectacle or a broad parody like Spaceballs.

Boxoffice Estimate

Mickey 17 lands in a strong release window, as March has historically been kind to sci-fi and adventure films (Batman v Superman ($175M), Captain Marvel ($153M), Dune 2 ($83M), Godzilla x Kong ($80M). Over the past nine years, the average wide release has opened to $15M in January, $21M in February, and $32M in March, giving this film a solid foundation.

Early National Research Group (NRG) tracking shows Mickey 17 with a 61 "awareness" score and a 10 "first-choice" rating. Based on data from over 250 recent releases, those numbers suggest an opening weekend in the $24M range. Given the film’s strong visual appeal and Director Bong Joon-ho’s reputation, word-of-mouth should be positive, particularly among sci-fi enthusiasts and Pattinson’s dedicated fanbase.

Current projection models point to a $21M opening, with a likely range between $19M and $23M. With a modest 2.9x multiple, the final gross should land between $55M and $67M. If these projections hold, Mickey 17 will open in line with the average R-rated March release over the past nine years, making it a respectable performer with potential for long legs in the right markets.

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