Published Jan 19, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed by: Universal | Release Date: 2/3/23 | Run Time: 108 Minutes
Suspense/Thriller. While vacationing at a remote cabin in the woods, a young girl and her parents are taken hostage by four armed strangers who demand they make an unthinkable choice to avert the apocalypse. Confused, scared and with limited access to the outside world, the family must decide what they believe before all is lost....Dave Bautista, Johnathan Groff, Rupert Grint, Ben Aldridge, Abby Quinn, Nikki Amuka-Bird
Screening Notes
M. Night Shymalan has delivered some wonderful films (Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Split, Signs) and some disappointments (Wide Awake, The Last Airbender, The Happening). His erratic track record is maddening, and I sit through each new film with my fingers crossed the “good M. Night” will show up and deliver another uniquely clever, scary-fun film…with Knock at the Cabin, he comes sooooo close. The storyline of a family of three, suddenly held hostage by four super empathetic strangers (David Bautista is very good), who demand they sacrifice one of their own to avert the apocalypse (not the hyperbole apocalypse, THE complete and final biblical destruction of the world apocalypse), catches your attention.
But as is often the frustrating case with M. Night films, after an entertaining 98 minutes, we get to the last 10 minutes and…“clunk”. Metaphorically, with two minutes left in the 4th quarter, I watched an exciting 90-yard drive down the field, then, on 4th down, rather than going for the win, the coach elected to kick a field goal and we went on to lose by 1-point. An entertaining game, with plenty of thrills, but…
Boxoffice Estimate
No mystery, M. Night has a strong and faithful following. His last 12 films have generated $1.4B domestically and over $3.0B globally. Only two of his titles have earned less than $50M and six have generated over $100M…on average, his films open to $34M, generate a 3.4x multiple, and go on to earn $116M; his last 4 films have opened to $31M and totaled $90M. Other comparative titles have opened to $49M and totaled $165M. Over the past 5 years, film's opening in the month of Feb have averaged $24M and totaled $73M.
Taking all this into consideration, the resulting formula points to an opening weekend totaling $28.3M, with a range between $25M and $31M. The anticipated 2.6x opening weekend multiple is less then M. Night’s average, the Comparative titles, and a typical Feb release, leading to a total gross estimate of between $65M and $80M.
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