
Published Oct 22, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 11/1/24 | Run Time: 104 Minutes
Drama. Multiple generations of couples and families inhabit the same home over the course of a century.........Tom Hanks, Robin Wright, Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly
Screening Notes
No doubt, Robert Zemeckis is a talented and innovative director --- Back to the Future, Forrest Gump, Cast Away, Polar Express, A Christmas Carol are classics. So, when moviegoers see that Zemeckis and his go to guy, Tom Hanks, are teaming up again, it’s going to be pretty natural for them to have a preconceived notion of what to expect. As far as being innovative, the storyline and storytelling are visually fun and thought-provoking. Hanks and Wright are always enjoyable, and they deliver nuanced, powerful performances that add a lot of depth to the story. But this is a far different movie than Forrest Gump or Cast Away. The pacing of the storytelling is slow and self-reflective, and not the more dynamic, straightforward, escapism plot the broad moviegoing audience is likely to be expecting from this director and cast. The film should draw a lot of critical acclaim (particularly since we are entering award season) and positive word of mouth and will best appeal to a 35 and up demographic --- and all moviegoers that enjoy art-house style films.
Boxoffice Estimate
Here will not break records at the box office, but its appeal will likely grow through positive word-of-mouth among adult audiences. My sense is that its potential for success lies in awards-season buzz and critical acclaim. It should perform strong in major urban markets but may have limited appeal in smaller, mainstream markets, making it a well-received but niche film. That said, A Man Called Otto proved to be a very nice surprise in smaller markets, in many instances topping as one of the top 5 films in 2022. Otto and Here both star Tom Hanks and share a focus on human connections and personal growth…each title approaches these themes differently, so perhaps we should not be too quick to judge market appeal.
As a final note, the visual storytelling, especially in showing the passage of time in a single space, is pretty captivating, but these themes can be pretty darn challenging to convey, presenting a herculean challenge to studio and exhibitor marketing teams…word-of-mouth support is going to be super important.
Taking in all of the above and noting that the release date looks to be perfect for this title, modeling points to a $10M opening, with a range between $9M and $11M. The film’s positive word-of-mouth should produce a healthy multiple of 5.7x, which should generate a final gross between $50M and $61M. The projected opening and total gross are expected to generally be in line with Boys in the Boat and A Man Called Otto.


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