Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DR. STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS (PG13)

Published May 3, 2022

Synopsis

Distributor: Disney | Release Date: 5/6/22 | Run Time: 126 Minutes

Dr. Stephen Strange casts a forbidden spell that opens the doorway to the multiverse, including alternate versions of himself, whose threat to humanity is too great for the combined forces of Strange, Wong, and Wanda Maximoff.

Screening Notes

First, let me state that I’m a HUGE fan of Marvel movies. I enjoy everything about them; they always produce a perfect balance of action, humor, likeable characters, drama, and an overall fun-factor (name another set of movies where you actually enjoy staying through the credits). The Marvel Universe brand has been carefully crafted and always delivers a consistent superhero (yes, this even includes Morbius). With that in mind, when I note that Dr. Strange is just an “average" Marvel film, that shouldn’t be interpreted as an insult.

I do have a bit of problem with the “multiverse” concept. Marvel pulled it off in Spider-Man: No Way Home, but I would argue that was due entirely to the likeability of past Spider-man actors and their nostalgic reunion. With Dr. Strange, the storyline concept is sometimes confusing and takes too much of the 126-minute run time to untangle.

Fans of the MCU (“true believers”) are going to enjoy this movie and likely overlook many of my petty observations. 80% of the core fanbase falls within the 18-to-34-year-old age range, which happens to be the demographic most eager to return to theatres…in 2021 they accounted for 43% of all tickets sold; interesting to also note that MPAA stats actually showed a small YOY decrease in this segment’s online streaming habits!

Summer 2022 kicks off on May 6.

Boxoffice Estimate

The Marvel Universe has been wildly successful, generating ~$10B in North American boxoffice over the span of 28 titles, with five of those titles ranked in the top 10 of all-time grossing films. The average title has opened to $132M and has gone on to earn $360M in domestic gross.

Admittedly, my estimate is running far behind current analyst projections calling for an opening weekend of between $175M and $200M. My thinking isn’t going to be popular. Dr. Strange typically trails 5th in Avenger popularity polls, with most fans ranking the Doctor behind Iron Man, Captain America, Thor and Spider-man. I’ve tried to reasonably squeeze every angle and taken a deep dive into the data in search of every possible dollar of gross, but my modeling lands at an opening weekend totaling $112M, with a range between $100M and $123M. The expectation of a respectable 2.7x multiple leads me to a total gross between $276M and $338M.

To add context, a $112M opening weekend would place Dr. Strange in the middle of the road (in other words, an average Marvel movie), at #14 on the list of Marvel titles released since leading off with Iron Man in 2008…this opening would also be 32% greater than the first Dr. Strange released in 2016.

Now, let’s not forget that a $112M opening weekend is still pretty impressive! The average Harry Potter film (8) opened to $103M, and since January 2020 there have only been two (2) films to open with at least a $100M weekend and only thirteen (13) since January 2018.

Click to Watch Trailer !