Published Feb 6, 2025
Synopsis
Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 2/14/25 | Run Time: 118 Minutes
Adventure. Sam Wilson, the new Captain America, finds himself in the middle of an international incident and must discover the motive behind a nefarious global plan…Anthony Mackie, Harrison Ford, Giancarlo Esposito, Liv Tyler
Screening Notes
Whew, what a relief, the old-school Avengers are back! Anthony Mackie steps into his first solo outing as Cap, carrying the film well and bringing some nice depth and great chemistry with his supporting characters. The plot is exciting, the visuals stunning, and Harrison Ford always great. The film will definitely satisfy Marvel fans, but it should play well with general audiences. Although a bit predictable and not overly “risky”, the film nicely provides a fresh restart for the franchise.
Boxoffice Estimate
There’s been a lot of chatter over the past couple of years about whether audiences are starting to experience fatigue with Marvel superhero movies. But is it really a thing?
On one hand, it's true that we've seen a ton of superhero films over the past few years—everything from big-budget blockbusters to TV series and animated shows. Keeping up with all the storylines and characters can be exhausting even for hard core fans.
On the flip side, we’ve had 16 years of Marvel blockbusters, bringing millions of enthusiastic fans through theatre doors, and generating over $11.5B in domestic boxoffice, so let’s not be too dismissive. Sure, there have been some stinkers (Morbius and The Marvels are two examples) but even after 34 films, the average Marvel title opens to $128M…$112M for the 13 post-Covid titles.
Marvel has consistently adapted by blending genres—delivering heist films like Ant-Man, space operas like Guardians of the Galaxy, and political thrillers like The Winter Soldier. Their push for diversity and fresh storytelling has expanded their audience, as seen with Black Panther and Shang-Chi, both of which brought in moviegoers who may not have traditionally been drawn to superhero films. So, while concerns about superhero fatigue persist, my sense is that Marvel’s knack for reinvention points to these heroes not losing their strength just yet…Brave New World, followed by Thunderbolts (WB 5/2) and Fantastic Four (WB 7/25) will provide a clear test of the brand’s staying power.
Early NRG “awareness” tracking for Brave New World is currently at a super high 94 and “first choice” at 35…historical data from over 250 recent titles suggests those NRG numbers would translate into an opening in the neighborhood of $115M. Notably, the “original” Avengers lineup (Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, and Black Widow) average an opening weekend +38% more than Marvel’s secondary characters.
With all this in mind, projection modeling points to a $108M opening, with a range between $97M and $118M. Marvel films tend to be front-end loaded, so the multiples can be subdued, in this case, Brave New World should produce a multiple of 2.6x, which will generate a final gross between $256M and $313M. If true, Brave New World will open -32% less than the average original Avenger title and -16% less than the overall average Marvel title…however, the opening does fall in line with post-Covid Marvel titles and would be +56% GREATER than the average PG13 title opening in February over the past 9 years. While Marvel’s dominance isn’t what it once was, the numbers suggest audiences aren’t walking away just yet.
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