
Published Jan 15, 2025
Synopsis
Distributed By: Angel Studios | Release Date: 1/24/25 | Run Time: 112 Minutes
Based on a True Story. When Mr. Deen discovers one of his students has been living out of his car and thrown into jail, he decides to bail him out. Determined to curb Nate’s self-destructive behavior, Mr. Deen quickly discovers a host of dark secrets that are slowly tearing Nate apart. What started as a good deed becomes a desperate fight to save Nate from his own demons. As Nate spirals deeper into despair, Mr. Deen must decide how far he’s willing to go to save a kid on the brink of losing everything-even himself.. …Jared Harris, Nicholas Hamilton
Screening Notes
Angel Studios is dedicated to producing and distributing crowd-funded, inspirational films. Their unique process involves filmmakers presenting their ideas to a membership community known as the "Angels Guild." This group votes on upcoming projects, and members can then invest in the selected films. It’s very easy to see why the Guild greenlit Brave the Dark, a heartfelt, intimate, and well told true story. The film will catch the eye of moviegoers that enjoyed Unsung Hero, Ordinary Angels, Jesus Revolution, A Man Called Otto, and any title from Angel. Similar to those titles, I expect Brave the Dark boxoffice performance to over-index in small/mid-size markets, particularly in the central region of the country.
At this screening, I had the good fortune of attending a post-screening Q&A with the producers, including Nate Deen—yes, the same Nate Deen who poignantly shares his very personal story in this movie. Nate was quick to highlight that this is truly a story about Stan Deen, a man with a strong moral compass who consistently did the right thing—even when it was difficult and unpopular. Stan’s actions literally saved Nate’s life, making this narrative all the more powerful.
Boxoffice Estimate
Angel’s unique distribution model has released eight (8) titles since 2023. Averaging an amazingly consistent RT Audience Score of 92, have to say the Guild concept looks to be spot-on in bringing new stories to life that resonate with moviegoers. However, one challenge with Angel’s business model is its heavy reliance on crowdfunding to also cover marketing costs, leading to relatively modest spends, thus impacting moviegoer “awareness” for their films, which, per NRG Tracking, typically averages around ~30…everyone that sees their films loves them, just not enough know about them. That said, Angel’s commitment to high-quality content and inspirational themes does look to be translating into a subtle but growing moviegoer awareness for their brand, particularly within the various faith-based communities.
NRG Awareness tracking for Brave the Dark is predictably lower than other wide release titles, mirroring patterns seen with previous Angel titles prior to their opening…on the plus side, I also expect the RT Audience Score to be in the upper 90’s. All variables factored, projection modeling points to a $6M opening, with a range between $5M and $7M. The film should produce a multiple of 3.8x, which will generate a final gross between $20M and $25M. These projections align closely with Angel’s current release, Homestead. If true, Brave the Dark will open +25% greater than the average Angel film (sans the hugely successful Sound of Freedom) and ultimately gross +69% more. Note that the 3.8x projected multiple is +34% higher than both the average Angel title AND the average wide release PG13 title in Jan over the past 9 years…in other words, based on positive word of mouth and sustained audience interest, Brave the Dark should continue to drive solid grosses over an extended period of time beyond the opening weekend.


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