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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - AIR (R)


Published Mar 15, 2023


Synopsis

Distributed by: MGM | Release Date: 4/5/23 | Runtime: 111 Minutes

Drama. Sonny Vaccaro and Nike pursue basketball rookie Michael Jordan, creating a partnership that revolutionizes the world of sports and contemporary culture...Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Jason Bateman, Chris Tucker, Viola Davis


Screening Notes

Everyone knows the ending but learning the story behind the story is a heck-of-a-lot of fun. Director (and cast mate) Ben Affleck’s opening credits absolutely nail a very fun nostalgic look back at the culture of the film’s 1984 setting. Matt Damon is his usual confident, humorous, likeable self. And who doesn’t like Jason Bateman and Chris Tucker. The film is well-constructed, paces nicely, and even though you know how the story ends, you still find yourself tortured with anticipation as you root for Damon’s character to beat out Adidas and Converse and close the deal with Jordan. It’s unfortunate the film is R-rated and not PG13…sadly, just one too many F-bombs.


Boxoffice Estimate

In 1984, Nike was hoping to sell $3M Air Jordan’s over 4 years; today sales total $5B a year. In 1984, Nike was a distant 3rd place with its basketball shoe; today, they command 9 of the top 10 most worn shoes in the NBA…and it all started with Michael Jordan. 40+ audiences know Jordan well and will find the story compelling, but unclear how the 18-39 age group will respond. Jordan is arguably the greatest player in history, but he’s 60 years old and hasn’t been on the court in over 20 years…Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, LeBron James are today’s headline grabbers. Similarly, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck and Jason Bateman are all now in their 50’s. Air premieres at SXSW on Mar 18, so with over 60% of the attendees under 40, and with a huge affinity for social media, we should know the answer soon.


Recent comp titles include American Underdog and Ford v Ferrari; stepping back a few years, a good comp is Moneyball (’11) which opened to $19.5M. Taking all into consideration, weighted projection modeling yields an opening weekend totaling $10.9M, with a range between $10M and $12M, and a total multiple of 3.3x leading to a final gross estimate of between $32M and $40M. Note that over the past 5 years, films debuting in Mar on 2,000+ screens have opened to an average of $28.9M and gone on to total $80.1M.


Really rooting for this film, it deserves success. Also now starting to feel the welcome presence of Amazon Studios’ acquisition of MGM in Mar’22 and their announced commitment to pump $1B a year into theatrical releases…



Click To Watch Trailer !



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