Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - THUNDERBOLTS (PG13)

Published Apr 24, 2025

Synopsis

Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 5/2/25 | Run Time: 126 Minutes

Adventure. A group of antiheroes are caught in a deadly trap by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine and are forced into a dangerous mission that could bring them redemption if they unite as a team…Florence Pugh, David Harbour, Wyatt Russell, Sebastian Stan, Geraldine Viswanathan, Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Screening Notes

On the heels of a very successful Minecraft debut, very excited for the 2nd pre-summer blockbuster, Thunderbolts, to open…what a welcome jolt to kick off the summer season that looks like it may be up over +20% vs last year.

Thunderbolts delivers the kind of charged-up, popcorn-ready energy that gets audiences back into their favorite auditorium seats and feels like Marvel is flexing a different kind of muscle: one that's grittier, darker-humored, and refreshingly grounded. Love this fresh coat of paint on the Marvel Universe!

The ensemble chemistry pops, the action is tight, and the tone strikes a nice balance between mission-driven urgency and just enough snark to remind us that we’re still in the MCU. Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, and David Harbour have a natural rhythm that’s part dysfunctional family, part reluctant coworkers, and part “we-might-die-but-let’s-have-fun-doing-it.” Their banter never feels forced…it’s a true ensemble effort that makes you want to hang out with these guys.

Thunderbolts should play well with both the comic-faithful crowd and casual fans…particularly exciting is the movie’s strong repeat potential and expected robust word-of-mouth. 

Boxoffice Estimate

Since 2016, the MCU has dominated the May boxoffice with 4 of the Top 5 highest grossing opening weekends. NRG tracking suggests Thunderbolts is poised to open strong, with the kind of demographic reach that will make exhibitors and Disney smile.  With an expected 80+ Audience Score and free reign over the competitive landscape until Memorial Weekend, current projection modeling points to an $85M opening, with a likely range between $76M and $94M.  Although word-of-mouth should be strong, I’m holding the multiple at the average for the Marvel franchise (2.7x), driving a final gross between $205M and $250M. If these projections hold, Thunderbolts will open +80% greater than the average PG13-rated May release over the past nine years and ranking #24 of 36 Marvel titles.

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