Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - UNCHARTED (PG13)

Published Feb. 8, 2022

Synopsis

Distributor: Sony | Release Date: 2/18/22 | Run time: 116 Minutes

Based on one of the top 50 selling video game franchises of all-time, Nathan Drake and his wisecracking partner Victor "Sully" Sullivan embark on a dangerous quest to find the greatest treasure never found while also tracking clues that may lead to Nate's long-lost brother.

Screening Notes

There are two (2) “make-or-break” titles that will seal the fate of Q1’22 boxoffice performance, The Batman and Uncharted. The Batman is yet to be screened but Uncharted looks to deliver on its share of the workload. The film is a fun, non-stop action-packed adventure. The depth of storytelling and character development is more National Treasure or Jungle Cruise than Raiders of the Lost Ark…or put another way, it scores a hard-earned touchdown but misses the extra-point. Nevertheless, audiences will enjoy the action (the cargo plane scene is very well done and will get your heart rate soaring) and non-stop banter between the hottest actor of the moment, Tom Holland and the always dependable, Mark Wahlberg. I also sense the next movie in the franchise will be highly anticipated and even better.

Boxoffice Estimate

Like clockwork, the ever-reliable Wahlberg opens a film to around $20M and goes on to generate a respectable 3.5x multiple. Comparable adventure titles over the last several years have averaged a $31M opening and a very healthy 5.3x multiple…the two National Treasure films are a bit dated, so not included in the comps, but averaged a $40M opening and a 4.9x multiple. Tom Holland, in his three standalone Spider-man films has carried the day, averaging a $70M opening and a 3.1x multiple. Finally, overlay all this with the just under 50M Uncharted video games sold since 2007, and I believe the stage is set for an opening weekend of between $35M and $43M and a total gross of $113M to $138M. And best yet, given the target demographic, I believe the “Covid-factor” discount to only be around ~5%.

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