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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DEATH ON THE NILE (PG13)


Published Jan. 26, 2022


Synopsis

Distributor: Disney | Release Date: 2/11/22 | Run Time: 135 Minutes

Agatha Christie’s Belgian sleuth Hercule Poirot's Egyptian vacation aboard a glamorous river steamer turns into a terrifying search for a murderer when a picture-perfect couple's idyllic honeymoon is tragically cut short.


Screening Notes

This is the follow up film to the 2017 Murder on the Orient Express, which opened to $28.7M and went on to gross a healthy $103M. Agatha Christie’s books have sold more than 100 million copies and Death on the Nile is one of the most popular. Kenneth Branagh has honed his Hercule Poirot character and Agatha would be proud. The ensemble cast was well-selected (albeit, Armie Hammer brings some personal baggage the studio’s marketing folks had to work around…cannibalism, really?), even though shamefully under-utilized…you hardly even notice Russell Brand. The cinematography is beautiful and very panoramic; the story is nicely told but with a few odd loose-ends that don’t quite add up; the movie is about 10 to 15 minutes too long. The audience will enjoy trying to figure out who the murderer is. Overall, the film is very similar to Murder on the Orient Express (but much “edgier”) and, if not for the COVID-impact, would likely generate similar boxoffice results.


Boxoffice Estimate

Absent the COVID-factor, I would project this film to open to $25.7M and go on to gross $92.3M. With a key target demographic “older” females (the most hyper-sensitive COVID demographic), you have to discount boxoffice revs. Also, you have to take into consideration Disney’s decision to not go “wide” on the opening.


Taking both these factors into consideration, I estimate a $16.5M opening and a $47.2M total.


Watch the Trailer





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