Published Sep 7, 2022
Synopsis
Distributed by: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 9/16/22 | Runtime: 126 Minutes
Drama/Adventure. Historical film based on true events about the Agojie, the all-female warrior unit who protected the West African kingdom of Dahomey in the 19th century, and the female general who trains the next generation of warriors to fight their enemies. Viola Davis, Lashana Lynch, John Boyega
Screening Notes
Let’s check-off the 5 basics of good storytelling…(1) characters: yep, moviegoers will like and empathize with the stories behind each of the main characters; (2) setting: Africa circa 1850 is mysterious but runs the risk of not being overly relatable to a broad audience and “period” films can be challenging; (3) plot: ugliness of slavery; story of physically and mentally tough, intelligent and empowered woman bound by friendship and loyalty…yep, those elements should resonate well with moviegoers and when you toss them all together do a nice job of adding (4) conflict, with plenty of action and excitement and lead to a satisfying (5) resolution...always important to moviegoers. For the most part, the film does a good job of checking all the right boxes.
Boxoffice Estimate
“Awareness” for the film looks to be “just okay”, with tracking not surprisingly closely aligning with Harriet (’19) and spiking highest with the +45-age demographic, with male/female interest similar. In addition to being a fairly solid film, perhaps the biggest advantage the film has is that it’s opening in Sep where the only mainstream competition will come from Don’t Worry Darling WB 9/23…theatres AND moviegoers need/want content, they’ve seen Top Gun 5 times and there isn’t much new stuff to select from over the next couple of weeks. The biggest disadvantage the film has is that it’s opening in Sep, where the average opening weekend generally only hovers between $15M and $20M (and in line with past Viola Davis films).
My math projects an opening weekend totaling $16.3M, with a range between $14.7M and $17.9M. Looking to similar comps for this time of the year, the film should yield a 3.3x multiple for a respectable total gross between $49M and $60M.
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