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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - SATURDAY NIGHT (R)

Published Sep 25, 2024


Synopsis

Distributed By: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 10/11/24 | Run Time: 109 Minutes

Comedy.  Tensions run high as producer Lorne Michaels and a ferocious troupe of young comedians and writers prepare for the first broadcast of "Saturday Night Live" on Oct. 11, 1975........Gabriel LaBelle, Cory Michael Smith, Dylan O’Brien, Willem Dafoe, J.K. Simmons, Jon Batiste


Screening Notes

The first thing moviegoers will notice is the cast is spot-on in embodying comedy legends like Chevy Chase, Jane Curtain, and Dan Akryoyd, and making you feel like you're watching absolute chaos unfold in real-time…the llama wandering around backstage is a perfect metaphor for the crazy happenings behind this historical recounting of the launch of SNL.  Gabriel LaBelle in unflappable as Lorne Michaels, Willem Defoe is the scary creepy NBC executive, and J.K. Simmons as Milton Berle will grab your attention.  We all know how the story ends, but even still, I found myself tricked into anxiety as to whether or not the show was actually going to debut. Now kicking off its 50th season, and the film being released exactly 50-years to the day (Oct 11), there is no one on the planet that hasn’t heard of SNL…the Sep 28 kickoff of the 50th season logged its highest viewer ratings in the past 4 years.   This fast-paced, high-energy, biographical comedy will definitely appeal to fans (of all ages) of SNL.

 

Boxoffice Estimate

The film opened WB 9/27 on 5 screens in NY and LA, tallying a weekend gross of $270k…$54k per screen, which is encouraging.  The film moves to “wide” release (barely) on ~2,000 screens, WB 10/11.  The release date is perfect, not only because it ties to the exact date SNL first went live in 1975, but because it will have a pretty wide-open competitive landscape, with not another wide release comedy in sight, either ahead or nipping at its heels.

 

Rounding up a recent set of comparative titles is proving a challenge, there has been a shortage of fast-paced, quick-witted, ensemble comedies over the past several years.  My modeling points to a $11M opening, with a range between $10M and $12M, going on to yield a 3.7x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $36M and $44M.  The projected opening is -50% less than the average R-rated title opening in Oct over the past 8 years, but it is also opening on -33% less screens.  The projections are in line with the comp set of titles and the VERY respectable multiple reflects the expected popular word-of-mouth the film will generate post-opening.


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