Published Jun 15, 2022
Synopsis
Distributor: Universal | Release Date: 7/1/22 | Run Time: 90 Minutes
In the 1970s, young Gru tries to join a group of supervillains called the Vicious 6 after they oust their leader -- the legendary fighter Wild Knuckles. When the interview turns disastrous, Gru and his Minions go on the run with the Vicious 6 hot on their tails.
Screening Notes
Come on! It’s hard for audiences, especially kids, not to love the cute/bizarre/outlandish/strange personality and look of the Minions…you have ZERO CLUE what they are saying (unless, of course, you speak Minionese), yet you know exactly what they are feeling and about to do, which is generally some pretty bad behavior.
Boxoffice Estimate
No doubt the Minions franchise has been strong; through four (4) films it has grossed over $3.7B worldwide and blasted to the #1 ranked animated franchise movie on the planet (for comparison, the four (4) Shrek films grossed $2.9B). However, we must also consider that the franchise has been around for a long 12 years and this is the 5th installment; the franchise peaked with the 3rd title (Minions) opening to $115M in 2015, then two years later the 4th title (Despicable Me) slipped by 37% to open to $72M. On a cumulative basis, the 2nd title (Despicable Me 2) actually generated the highest total gross at $368M.
There is a lot of market buzz (not hype) about Rise of Gru and, ironically, I believe the film will actually benefit from its original July 2020 release date being pushed back two years (similarly, I believe the same delay helped stoke demand for Top Gun: Maverick too). Although Rise of Gru will definitely benefit from being the only title opening over the July 4th holiday weekend, it will still be competing with what I believe the much stronger Lightyear (WB 6/17).
As such, my modeling projects an opening weekend more in line with 2015’s Despicable Me 3, totaling $74M, with a range between $67M and $81M. Now, let's not be too disappointed; if true, this will rank Rise of Gru as the 2nd highest animated opening since Frozen 2 ($120M) hit screens in Nov’19…my assumption is the #1 highest opening animated title will be Lightyear.
Animated films historically enjoy a strong level of repeat business and length of run, but Rise of Gru is going to feel pressure from Paws of Fury (WB 7/15) and DC Super Pets (WB 7/29). Although the Minions franchise averages an incredible 3.7x multiple (with the first two hitting 4.5x), I believe competitive pressures plus the challenges any 5th film in a franchise face, will result in a lower 3.1x multiple, resulting in a total gross between $207M and $253M.
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