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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - LIGHTYEAR (PG)


Published Jun 7, 2022


Synopsis

Distributor: Disney | Release Date: 6/17/22 | Run Time: 100 Minutes

The definitive origin story of Buzz Lightyear, the hero who inspired the toy in the Toy Story franchise. Movie follows the legendary space ranger on an intergalactic adventure alongside ambitious recruits, Izzy, Mo and Darby, and his robot companion Sox.


Screening Notes

Most importantly, this is a Pixar film…the gold standard for stunning animation and incredible storytelling, which appeals to both kids and more mature audiences. Not to say audiences won’t get misty-eyed, but Lightyear doesn’t quite rise to the emotional heart-wrenching of the other Toy Story movies; however, it comes pretty darn close, and the overall storyline is one of the best in the franchise…it’s so fun to learn Buzz’s backstory.


Boxoffice Estimate

The Toy Story franchise is strong. The last film, Toy Story 4, opened to $121M in 2019 and went on to gross $434M. On the strength of its two stars, Woody and Buzz, the four films have totaled $1.2B in domestic gross.


Oddly enough, the past 30 COVID-ravaged months have been relatively kind to animated films…kicking-off with Sonic the Hedgehog in Feb’20, the 17 films released have averaged a healthy $74M in domestic gross, with three pushing over $150M (and when you consider the much lower average ticket price, there’s a surprising amount of attendance volume driving that gross).


Adding all this up, my modeling settles at an opening weekend totaling $102M, with a range between $92M and $112M. Animated films enjoy an historically strong level of repeat business and length of run, so I’ve applied a 3.3x multiple (the Toy Story franchise averages 4.0x), which leads to a total gross between $305M and $373M.


“To Infinity, And Beyond!”


Click To Watch The Trailer !



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