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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (R)


Published Oct 4, 2023


Synopsis

Distributed By: Paramount | Release Date: 10/20/23 | Run Time: 206 Minutes

Drama. Based on a true story, Directed by Martin Scorsese. In the 1920s, members of the Osage Native American tribe of Osage County, Oklahoma, are murdered after oil is found on their land, and the FBI decides to investigate.....…Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert DeNiro, Lilly Gladstone, John Lithgow, Brendan Fraser.


Screening Notes

Movies are the world’s greatest storytelling medium --- they educate, drive social change, entertain, and help process life…Exhibit A: Killers of the Flower Moon. Flower Moon is one of the most brilliant movies I’ve seen…and I hated every minute of it. Scorsese films are known for being harsh, violent, and relevant and with Flower Moon he does his usual masterful job of both retelling this detestable story and making the audience rightfully uneasy while doing so. Super casting all around and DiCaprio and DeNiro deliver as expected…haven’t screened Napoleon yet but unless something goes horrible wrong, I suspect Flower Moon and Napoleon will be battling it out for top Actor, Director, and Picture Oscars. Also, like Hitchcock or Stan Lee, gotta love how Scorsese manages to slip himself into unexpected cameo roles in most all of his films.


Boxoffice Estimate

Scorsese hasn’t directed a film since 2016 but with 91 Academy Award Nominations, leading to his bookshelf displaying 20 Oscar statues, I don’t think that really matters, he is rooted in pop culture. The film will especially appeal to fans of Taxi Driver, Goodfellas, Cape Fear, Casino, Gangs of New York, The Departed, and Wolf of Wall Street…each of which starred either DiCaprio or DeNiro. The 3hr 26 min run time makes it tough for theatres to grind a performance schedule, so that will reign in grosses a bit…but then again, now totaling $333M, Oppenheimer was 3 hrs.


Math points to an opening weekend estimated at $33M, with a range between $29M and $36M. If true, this will be Scorsese’s highest opening weekend ever…a little short of Joker ($96M), which holds the title as the highest Oct opening ever, but the good news is, Scorsese films tend to grind on for weeks as positive word of mouth spreads, pointing to a very healthy 4.1x multiple; this should lead to a final gross estimated between $120M and $146M…potentially making this the all-time highest grossing Scorsese film.


Click To Watch Trailer !




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