Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DISCLOSURE DAY (PG13)

Published Jun 11, 2026

Synopsis

Distributed By: Universal | Release Date: 6/12/26 | Run Time: 145 Minutes

Adventure/Sci-Fi. A meteorologist and a cybersecurity expert find themselves at the center of a movement to expose the government's cover-up of extraterrestrial secrets...Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Wyatt Russell, Colin Firth

Screening Notes

Disclosure Day is vintage Spielberg. The John Williams music score and sense of wonder, mystery, adventure, and heart will bring audiences back to E.T., Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and Jurassic Park. This is exactly the kind of movie experience that reminds audiences why some movies simply belong on the big screen and Spielberg is one of our greatest storytellers. Emily Blunt delivers a terrific performance and, of course, I love that the story unfolds in Kansas City. I do offer up two concerns, the first I'll explain below, the second is that the first act paces a bit slow as Spielberg takes his time setting the table before delivering the payoff, if audiences are patient, it's worth the wait.

Boxoffice Estimate

Now, back to my first concern, Spielberg made a conscious decision to reveal very little in the trailers, preserving surprises for audiences. We definitely never want to give the entire film away before the lights go down, but Project Hail Mary proved you can preserve the mystery while still creating tremendous anticipation. As an exhibitor, I can’t help but wonder if the Disclosure Day marketing campaign may have swung too far in the other direction. 

Over the past several years, one of the biggest challenges facing theatrical exhibition hasn't been the quality of the movies—it's been awareness. We've seen too many excellent films earn terrific audience scores after release, only to underperform because consumers simply didn't know they existed.

Great movies are being made, but too often they're being under-marketed, leaving exhibitors to rely on word-of-mouth after opening weekend instead of momentum going into it. Disclosure Day will generate wonderful word-of-mouth, I just wish more people knew it was arriving this weekend…National Research Group (NRG) tracking underscores my point, Awareness is in the mid-50’s which is crazy low for a Spielberg summer film, that number should be in the 80’s. Conversely, among moviegoers who are aware of the film, interest in seeing it is strong...the issue isn’t demand, it’s discovery.

Taking all of the above into consideration, internal modeling suggests a $50M opening weekend, with a range between $45M and $55M, landing it around +20% greater than the average PG13 opening in June over the past 10 years. Positive word-of-mouth will help drive post-opening numbers, but we will also be entering a busy summer release schedule, leading to an estimated 2.9x multiple and a domestic total in the $130M to $160M range.

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