Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DOWNTON ABBEY: GRAND FINALE (PG)

Published: Sep 3, 2025

Synopsis

Distributed By: Focus | Release Date: 9/12/25 | Run Time: 123 Minutes

Romance | Drama. In the summer of 1930, the Crawleys grapple with the threat of social disgrace when Mary finds herself at the center of a public scandal and the family faces financial trouble…Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Michelle Dockery, Paul Giamatti

Screening Notes

The Crawleys are back on the big screen one last time and Grand Finale will be very satisfying to fans who have followed the family saga from the beginning. This final installment delivers exactly what audiences have come to expect: lavish period detail, upstairs-downstairs drama, and some wry humor mixed with snappy references to many past happenings (remember Mary being Mary and that Turkish diplomat in Season 1). Thankfully, the film also provides a satisfying conclusion for each of the characters…overall, a graceful farewell to the Downton world.   

Boxoffice Estimate

The film will obviously appeal to the core fan base (which is estimated at over 120M globally and the most popular series in the history of British TV) that’s been loyal for over a decade but should also catch the eye of casual moviegoers simply looking for a little refined escape after the crush of summer blockbusters. No doubt, the film will skew to an older demographic.

National Research Group (NRG) tracking currently reflects a 65 Awareness score and a 5 First-Choice rating. Based on comps from over 300 recent releases, those numbers suggest an opening weekend in the $16M to $17M range, which is where most industry analysts are circling, including me.  Pre-opening, Critics have scored an 86 for Grand Finale, which is spot-on with the first two films, which went on to average a 95 Audience Score…this installment will fall right in line.

My modeling suggests a $16M opening weekend, with a range between $15M and $18M; an estimated 3.1x multiple, should land the film’s domestic total in the $45M to $55M range. The first Downton film enjoyed a pre-pandemic opening of $31M, while Downton 2 ($16M) saw a softer opening as audiences were still rebuilding post-pandemic.  

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