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Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - BARBIE (PG13)

Writer's picture: Frank RashFrank Rash

Published Jul 12, 2023


Synopsis

Distributed by: Warner Bros | Release Date: 7/21/23 | Run Time: 114 Minutes

Comedy. Barbie and Ken are having the time of their lives in the colorful and seemingly perfect world of Barbie Land. However, when they get a chance to go to the real world, they soon discover the joys and perils of living among humans..…Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, Will Ferrell, Michael Cera, Kate McKinnon, Simu Liu


Screening Notes

From look to outfits to demeanor, Margot Robbie IS Barbie. The story is filled with plenty of snappy banter that delivers a fun, but honest look at both BarbieLand vs the “real world”, and female vs male. Barbie (Robbie) is a strong female character, serving up a positive female role model, with a good inspirational message about not conforming to stereotypes. Pre-screening, my thinking was the film would play more like Clifford the Big Red Dog or Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile…a soft, live-action comedy, with a well-known central character, targeted to kids, particularly young girls (4-7 yrs) and their moms. I wasn’t too far off but with its PG13 rating, Barbie plays more like Clueless (Cher Horowitz) and Legally Blonde (Elle Woods), pushing that “young girl” age up closer to 8-10 yrs old. Still, moms and daughters will enjoy movie night…oh, and it’s pretty fun for dads and brothers too.


Boxoffice Estimate

Barbie brings a lot to the table for her movie debut…64 years of global brand equity and, with over 100 dolls sold EVERY minute, along with a Dreamhouse every 2 minutes, crushing retail category dominance; and let’s not forget she dates a younger man…Ken is only 62. Current tracking boasts an eye-popping 92 Awareness, with females at 97 and males, surprisingly, at 88.


Current projections around the industry circle around a $100M opening weekend; the PG13 rating is reining my estimate in a bit to a very respectable $87M opening, with a range between $79M and $96M. For me the real wild card will be the post-opening hold; the recent title comp set averages 3.4x but, again, I’m being a bit more conservative with multiple of 2.5x, which brings the film’s final gross estimate to between $200M and $245M.



Click To Watch Trailer !



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