Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - ARE YOU THERE GOD, IT'S ME MARGARET (PG13)

Published Apr 1, 2023

Synopsis

Distributed by: Lionsgate | Release Date: 4/28/23 | Run Time: 111 Minutes

Comedy|Drama. Based on Judy Blume’s 1970 best seller. When her family moves from the city to the suburbs, 11-year-old Margaret navigates new friends, feelings, the beginning of adolescence, and starts to ask questions about religion and faith.....Rachel McAdams, Kathy Bates, Abby Ryder Fortson

Screening Notes

With the author, Judy Blume, as a producer, the film does a super job of capturing both the 1970’s setting and staying true to the fun “coming of age” spirit of the book. The storyline will nostalgically hit home with moviegoers that were in middle school in the 70’s but more importantly, this is just a charming family movie for today’s audience. Casting is spot-on and their on-screen chemistry enjoyable.

Boxoffice Estimate

The comparison titles do not include a list of huge blockbusters…Jesus Revolution, Champions, Where the Crawdads Sing, A Man Called Otto, CODA, Little Women. However, these are titles that entertained, made audiences feel good, and performed reasonably well nationally, but over-indexed in smaller markets and throughout the Midwest…I expect Are You There God will do the same, which is why the projections below will likely be higher than expectations from other industry analysts.

Projection modeling yields an opening weekend totaling $18M, with a range between $16M and $20M, and a total multiple of 4.2x leading to a final gross estimate of between $68M and $84M. Note that over the past 5 years, films debuting in Apr on 2,000+ screens have opened to an average of $45M and gone on to total $115M…BUT backing out the two mega-hit Avengers titles the average opening weekend totals a more down-to-earth, $23M, going on to total $61M.

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