Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - VENOM: THE LAST DANCE (PG13)

Published Oct 16, 2024

Synopsis

Distributed By: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 10/25/24 | Run Time: 150 Minutes

Action.  Eddie and Venom are on the run. Hunted by both of their worlds and with the net closing in, the duo is forced into a devastating decision...........Tom Hardy, Juno Temple, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Cristo Fernandez

Screening Notes

Marvel movies featuring characters like Morbius and Venom are just way darker movies than the Avengers films.  For starters, Morbius is a living vampire and Venom an alien parasite, both are complex anti-heroes that struggle with the line between good and evil.  On the other hand, Avengers movies always feature pretty charismatic straightforward heroes, grounded in good old-fashion stories of teamwork and hope.  While fans of Venom enjoy the grittier storytelling, I’m not so sure the edgier stuff appeals in the same way to the broader Marvel Universe fanbase.

Venom 3 nicely builds on the foundation of the first two films, is definitely more polished than Venom 1, and retains the same fun balance of quirky humor and action that led to the success of Venom 2…although the general storyline in Venom 3 is not as streamlined and tight as the 2nd film.  Overall, the Venom fanbase will not be disappointed!

Boxoffice Estimate

While the Venom fanbase will love the film, two notables with respect to the franchise have to make their way into any projection analysis.  First, as mentioned, while within the Marvel Universe, Venom is in no way an Avengers-style movie and as such, my sense is it tends to grapple with having appeal with the broader MCU base.  Second, moviegoers in smaller markets tend to gravitate towards heartwarming dramas and feel-good comedies…stories centered around family, friendship, and community.  Not that now and then a good super-hero action movie won’t fill every seat in the auditorium (Spider-Man, Captain America, Infinity War) but Morbius, Dr. Strange, Shang-Chi, and Venom seem to struggle to resonate.

After a painfully slow Oct start, Venom definitely kicks off the needed Q4 boost and a great slate of titles we should enjoy through the end of the year. My modeling points to an $85M opening, with a range between $76M and $93M.  The film should produce an average multiple of 2.6x, which should generate a final gross between $196M and $240M.  The projected opening is -35% less than the average Marvel title BUT right in line with the first 2 films in the franchise AND 2.9x greater than the average PG13 title opening in Oct over the past 8 years. Oh, and if the forecast is accurate, Venom will be the 4th highest opening weekend of the year, behind Deadpool, Inside Out, and Beetlejuice!

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