Published May 11, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed by: Disney | Release Date: 5/26/23 | Run Time: 135 Minutes
Family. Live-action remake of the 1989 animated Disney classic. The youngest of King Triton's daughters, Ariel is a beautiful and spirited young mermaid with a thirst for adventure. Longing to find out more about the world beyond the sea, Ariel visits the surface and falls for the dashing Prince Eric. Following her heart, she makes a deal with the evil sea witch, Ursula, to experience life on land......Halle Bailey, Javier Bardem, Melissa McCarthy, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Awkwafina
Screening Notes
There have been questions about the existence of Mermaids since Homer wrote The Odyssey in 7 BC. Fast-forward 2,300 years and Disney has finally proven these half-human, half-fish creatures with alluring voices are actually real; I’m totally convinced. Such a HUGE RELIEF to have Disney back to being Disney…heartwarming story, plenty of song and dance, a beautiful heroine, a handsome prince, hilarious talking creatures, and a creepy villain (Melissa McCarthy, yikes!). This live-action version, with a $200M budget, does a nice job living up to the magic of the animated classic. Kids are going to love it.
Boxoffice Estimate
Disney’s strategy to release live-action remakes from their classic animated library has proven largely successful, averaging an $82M opening weekend and going on to total $269M. Cruella, released in 2021, was kind of a stinker…but let’s be real, IT WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF A GLOBAL PANDEMIC, so that $86M total gross looked pretty darn attractive at the time. Factoring out Cruella (’21) and Pete’s Dragon (’16), the average weekend opening swells to a nice round $100M, which is about where Little Mermaid should land...
Modeling projects an opening weekend generating $95M, with a range between $85M and $104M…this is in line with Aladdin (’19) and Jungle Book (’16). With its Memorial Weekend opening, Mermaid is perfectly timed to be the 4th title of the year to open to $100M+, following in the momentum wave created by Mario Bros, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Ant-Man. The total multiple of 3.6x is projected to be slightly more than the comp set average, leading to a final gross estimate between $306M and $374M.
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