Published Mar 29, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed by: MGM | Release Date: 4/21/23 | Run time: 122 Minutes
Action|Drama. Guy Ritchie, Director. During the war in Afghanistan, a local interpreter risks his own life to carry an injured sergeant across miles of grueling terrain to avoid being captured by the Taliban....Jake Gyllenhaal, Dar Salim
Screening Notes
Director, Guy Ritchie, strikes again! No nonsense, well-paced, tense action/drama with a storyline that speaks to personal morality and the principle of doing the right thing. Form a mental image in your mind of Black Hawk Down, mixed with Lone Survivor and Netflix’s Extraction. Gyllenhaal and Salim play their parts very well.
Boxoffice Estimate
This is a good film, opening on a good date. The film will no doubt play well to a male audience, but female moviegoers will not walk away disappointed. The last 4 Guy Ritchie films have averaged a tight $12M opening range and gone on to total $37M…and The Covenant is certainly as good of film, if not better, than this group. The other Comparative titles have averaged an opening 2x greater than Ritchie’s films, as have the last 5 years of wide release April titles (less the 2 mega-hit Avenger titles).
Weighted projection modeling yields an opening weekend totaling $12M, with a range between $11M and $14M, and the total multiple of 3.0x is in line with other Ritchie titles and leads to a final gross estimate of between $33M and $40M. Again, this is a good film. I feel the release strategy of only 2,500 runs will hold grosses down a bit, but counterbalancing this is the Comp set performance, expected positive word of mouth, and the MGM/Amazon marketing machine, which could easily result in the movie outpacing the estimates…I’m rooting for it; it deserves it.
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