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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE (R)


Published Apr 3, 2024


Synopsis

Distributed By: Lionsgate | Release Date: 4/19/24 | Run Time: 120 Minutes

Action | Adventure | Comedy.  Directed by Guy Ritchie and based in part on real historic events.  The British military recruits a small group of highly skilled soldiers to strike against German forces behind enemy lines during World War II........Henry Cavill, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Cary Elwes, Eiza Gonzalez


Screening Notes

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare is a fun adventure film romp with signature Guy Ritchie humor, snappy dialogue, colorful characters, fast-pace, and plot twists.  Yes, the film is rated R but the language and violence (it is WWII, after all) is fairly mild and there is no sexual content.  The backstory behind the backstory adds another layer of entertainment to the film, knowing that one of the planners of the actual event the story is based on (Operation Postmaster), was a young British Naval Intelligence Officer named, Ian Fleming…and that Henry Cavill’s character went on to serve as inspiration for Fleming’s James Bond.  Who knew!

 

Boxoffice Estimate

Guy Ritchie currently has everyone’s attention.  In addition to Ungentlemanly Warfare, his 8-series debut of The Gentlemen was the most watched series across ALL streaming platforms for most of the month of March and he is in post-production with In The Grey, slated for release in Jan’25, starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal.  Henry Cavill’s loyal fans have followed him from Superman to Mission Impossible to The Witcher to Argylle.  And Alan Ritchson IS Jack Reacher, which was Amazon’s most watched series in 2023. 

 

All the ingredients, in all the right proportions, have been assembled, so now it’s up to Lionsgate’s marketing team to deliver awareness and interest.  Assuming they do their part, my analysis points to an opening weekend estimate of $12M, with a range between $11M and $13M, going on to yield a strong 3.4x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $37M and $44M….set aside the two Sherlock Holmes films and Ungentlemanly Warfare should land right in the sweet spot of Ritchie’s past titles, and the average for an R-rated film opening in Apr.




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