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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - JOKER 2 (R)


Published Sep 29, 2024


Synopsis

Distributed By: Warner Bros | Release Date: 10/4/24 | Run Time: 138 Minutes

Thriller.  Struggling with his dual identity, failed comedian Arthur Fleck meets the love of his life, Harley Quinn, while incarcerated at Arkham State Hospital.......Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson


Screening Notes

Joker 2 is a strange continuation of the first Joker (’19).  Arthur Fleck (aka, the Joker), now institutionalized in Arkham, meets Harley Quinn, where their mutual attraction is immediate and electric.  The have a shared madness, which is pretty haunting, and Joaquin and Gaga are OUTSTANDING in their respective roles…I found Quinn even more frightening and disturbing then the Joker!  Overall, the film seems to focus more on character development than big explosive moments, resulting in it being more intimate than intense.  While a great character study, with an interesting mix of daydream-like musical numbers weaved in, Joker 2 is not the typical action-packed comic book movie most fans will be expecting…

 

Boxoffice Estimate

National Research Group (NRG) has the title tracking strong in both Awareness (85+) and Interest (55+) and the first Joker (’19) opened to an impressive $96M. 

 

The first Joker was a wild, crazy, and intense film.  Joker 2 takes an offbeat departure from the expected comic book adaptation, which has me factoring in a much more conservative approach to projections…my modeling points to a $59M opening, with a range between $53M and $65M, going on to yield a 2.7x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $145M and $177M.  The projected opening is -39% less than the first Joker and -16% less than the Comp set of titles…however, this is still a VERY respectable 2.9x greater than the average R-rated title opening in Oct over the past 8 years.  Other industry analysts have the title opening as high as $80M…I’m rooting for them!

Click To Watch Trailer !



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