Published Jun 20, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 6/30/23 | Run Time: 142 Minutes
Adventure. Daredevil archaeologist Indiana Jones races against time to retrieve a legendary dial that can change the course of history. Accompanied by his goddaughter, he soon finds himself squaring off against Jürgen Voller, a former Nazi who works for NASA…Harrison Ford, Mads Mikkelsen, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Antonio Banderas
Screening Notes
In my mind, Raiders of the Lost Ark is one of the best adventure films ever made…no, let me restate that, it IS the best adventure film ever made. I was a young manager trainee, only a few months on the job, when this film opened and I poked my head in a Raiders theatre auditorium almost every day for the next 65 weeks thereafter. Moviegoers agreed, and Raiders ended up turning an eye-popping 30x opening weekend multiple…Top Gun Maverick was 5.7x.
The opening scenes in the previous four Indiana Jones’ movies are heart-pounding excitement with the iconic musical score and Dial of Destiny kicks off with just as much energy as the others…the first 20 minutes serves up some nice nostalgia for Indy fans. The storyline gives plenty of nods to Indy’s past adventures, his many idiosyncrasies, and the people that have passed through his life…it also stays true to the familiar rollercoaster pace that makes Indiana Jones, Indiana Jones. I suspect audiences are going to leave with mixed feelings…there is plenty of action, and of course John Williams scoring the music, but there is sadness in seeing the swashbuckling Indy as an old man; he’s not frail but he is pretty weathered, lonely, forgotten, and very much out of place in 1969.
Boxoffice Estimate
Last year’s Top Gun Maverick not only saved the industry but turned heads with how strongly closing out a storyline from an iconic 1980’s movie resonated with moviegoers. Harrison Ford has every bit the street cred and iconic character bio as Tom Cruise, so let’s see how an aging archeologist can do versus an aging fighter pilot.
The previous 4 Indiana Jones titles averaged a $43M opening weekend and went on to total $236M, which in today’s dollars equals $85M and $569M, respectively. The recent comp set of 80’s and 90’s reboots have opened to an average of $65M and totaled $250M.
My number crunching points to an $87M opening, with a range between $78M and $96M. Indy will feel pressure from his 80’s rival when Mission Impossible 7 opens 2 weeks later, followed by Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer at the 3-week mark. This leads me to expect a total multiple of 3.5x, lower than the 4.3x for the Indy franchise and 3.8x for the comp set. The film’s final gross is estimated between $274M and $334M.
Another interesting data point is how have the recent reboots compared to their originals…on average, they have generated an opening weekend 3.8x and a total gross of 1.5x greater than the original. My estimate has Dial of Destiny going on to gross 1.2x more than Raiders of the Lost Ark.
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