Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - FANTASTIC FOUR (PG13)

Published Jul 21, 2025

Synopsis

Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 7/25/25 | Run Time: 115 Minutes

Adventure. Mister Fantastic, Invisible Woman, Human Torch and the Thing face their most daunting challenge yet as they defend Earth from Galactus and Silver Surfer.....…Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Screening Notes

Following Thunderbolts and Superman, this is the third strong entry in a row that proves superhero fatigue might be more about execution than oversaturation. This Fantastic Four reboot is exactly what the superhero genre needed — confident, clever, tight storytelling, with sleek visuals (love the retro-cool ‘60’s vibe blended with a modern day feel), and plenty of banter that works. Pedro Pascal is having a stellar year on both TV and the big screen and is perfectly cast as Reed Richards (aka Mister Fantastic). Like Thunderbolts and Superman, Fantastic Four reenergizes the superhero genre at just the right time.

Boxoffice Estimate

National Research Group (NRG) tracking reflects strong pre-release buzz with a 90 Awareness score and a 16 First-Choice rating. Based on comps from over 270 recent releases, those numbers suggest an opening weekend in the $100M range…most industry analysts are circling around the $125M to $145M range.  I suspect both Critic and Audience scores will land in the 90+ range.

My modeling suggests a $126M opening weekend, with a range between $113M and $139M range, and an estimated 2.7x multiple, which would land the film’s domestic total in the $304M to $372M range. If those numbers hold, the opening will slip past Superman ($125M) and rank as the 3^rd highest of the year, behind Minecraft ($163M) and Lilo & Stitch ($146M), and outperform the average July PG13 opening by +165%. The opening would align squarely with the Marvel average ($125M) and soar past the average for the three previous Fantastic Four films by +170%...+73% adjusted for today’s dollars.

Click To Watch Trailer !