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Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - BONHOEFFER (PG13)

Writer's picture: Frank RashFrank Rash

Published Nov 13, 2024


Synopsis

Distributed By: Angel Studios | Release Date: 11/22/24 | Run Time: 132 Minutes

Historical Drama.  When a pacifist is called to a political act that could change the course of history, a man of honor responds. This film brings to life the story of Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German pastor and anti-Nazi dissident who sacrificed everything to help others in a dark time. …Jonas Dassler, Flula Borg


Screening Notes

Moviegoers that are fans of historical dramas that focus on real-life figures and the courage it takes to stand up for what’s right, will find Bonhoeffer is worth a watch…and is one of those rare stories that just might actually leave moviegoers thinking about it after they leave the theatre. The acting is solid, with a strong lead (Dassler) that captures Bonhoeffer’s compassion and inner struggle. Fans of Cabrini (also from Angel Studios, who, along with Lionsgate, has mastered the inspirational film genre with very high levels of Audience satisfaction) will likely find something here to connect with, as both films delve into the lesser-known stories of historical figures whose actions inspired real change.

 

The director, Todd Komarnicki (known for screenwriting Sully and producing Elf) keeps the story moving, avoiding the typical painfully s-l-o-w pace of some historical dramas, and has a knack for bringing out the humanity in larger-than-life figures.  However, one thing that might not work for everyone is the heavy dialogue—it’s a thoughtful movie, but sometimes the conversations feel like they’re doing more telling than showing…moviegoers that love action in their historical dramas need beware, they might find Bonhoeffer a bit restrained.

 

One quick note about the Comp set of recent titles below…the Audience Score for 6 of the 7 is 98-99; the 7th title scored a pitiful 94.  Similarly, Bonhoeffer should prove a crowd pleaser for those attending, yielding a Score of 95+.

 

Sound of Freedom: 99 | Ordinary Angels: 99 | Cabrini: 98 | Sound of Hope: 98 |

One Life: 94 | Unsung Hero: 99 | White Bird: 99


Boxoffice Estimate

Bonhoeffer faces the unenviable reality of opening against Wicked, Gladiator, and Moana, with the lingering impact of Best Christmas Pageant and Red One still capturing moviegoer attention as they ease into the Thanksgiving Holiday.  Still, my sense is WB 11/22 and WB 11/29 are going to be strong moviegoing weeks, with WB 11/29 positioned to potentially set a boxoffice record for the same post Thanksgiving period…and Bonhoeffer will benefit from the momentum. 

 

As expected, NRG Awareness tracking for Bonhoeffer is way lower than the other mainstream titles, landing very similar to the Comp set of titles prior to their opening, further reinforcing the projection results which point to a $4M opening, with a range between $3M and $5M.  The film should produce an average multiple of 4.0x, which should generate a final gross between $15M and $18M…just about in line with Unsung Hero, Cabrini, and Ordinary Angels


Click To Watch Trailer !




 

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