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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER (PG13)


Published Nov 3, 2022


Synopsis

Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 11/11/22 | Run Time: 161 Minutes

Action/Adventure. Wakanda fights to protect their nation from intervening world powers in the wake of King T'Challa's death. Angela Bassett, Letitia Wright, Martin Freeman, Tenoch Huerta


Screening Notes

This is definitely one of those only-watch-on-a-BIG-screen films! It’s action-packed, gut-wrenching, and beautiful to watch. The storyline properly honors Chadwick Boseman, at times takes a walk on the “dark side” and leaves the franchise with a very exciting future…not an easy task but the filmmakers get it done. It’s also fun to see Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ Val character turn up yet again…you just know there’s some future evil brewing.


Boxoffice Estimate

The MCU has racked up 4 of the highest grossing films in industry history. The 29 MCU titles have averaged a $133M opening weekend and gone on to earn $360M…in total, those 29 titles have generated $10.5B in domestic gross. The first Black Panther opened to $202M, and thanks to a healthy 3.5x multiple, went on to total $700M, ranking 6th on the all-time highest grossing list (it was 5th until Top Gun bumped it down a notch this summer).


With this kind of moviegoer street cred, my math yields an opening weekend totaling $253.4M, with a range between $228M and $278M. I’m sensing a total multiple of 2.6x, slightly less than the average MCU title, which would push the total gross to between an eye-popping $585M and $715M (the minimum ante into the all-time top 10 club is $620M). If true, Wakanda Forever would turn in the 4th highest MCU opening weekend and the 5th highest MCU total gross. A Home Run.



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