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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - AVATAR: WAY OF WATER (PG13)


Published Dec 13, 2022


Synopsis

Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 12/16/22 | Run Time: 192 Minutes

Action/Drama. Set more than a decade after the events of the first film Jake Sully and Ney'tiri have formed a family and are doing everything to stay together. When an ancient threat resurfaces, Jake must fight a difficult war against the humans... Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Stephen Lang, Vin Diesel, Kate Winslet, Sigourney Weaver


Screening Notes

Must admit, based on industry buzz, going into the screening my expectations were tempered…how could the film possibly live up to the buzz, let alone moviegoer reverence to the original. The bar was set pretty high. Happy to report, the film lives up to all we could hope for. The visual beauty is intense. The passion of the characters is intense. The action and brutality are intense. The 3D effect is intense. The visual storytelling is intense. The 3hr 12 min runtime is intense too and makes scheduling a real challenge but moviegoers shouldn’t be looking at their watch. This is a good film that will not disappoint.


Boxoffice Estimate

The original Avatar debuted on 3,452 screens and generated an opening weekend gross of only $77M ($84M in 2022 dollars). The first weekend’s gross wasn’t overly impressive, ranking as the 18th highest opening at the time, less than half of The Dark Night (’08), the #1 title back in the day. What was impressive is that 70% of the film’s gross was generated by 3D and it went on to churn out an amazing 10x opening weekend multiple.


Most analysts think this film has a strong shot at cracking the industry’s Top 10 all-time grossing title’s list, where the minimum ante is $620M. My math tends to agree and the roadmap to get there tally’s an opening weekend totaling $186.4M, with a range between $168M and $205M. The anticipated 3.6x multiple is nowhere near the 10x for the original but is slightly larger than the Top 10 comp titles average, bringing the total gross estimate between $597M and $730M. If on target, this would place Avatar: Way of Water #7 on the Top 10 list, bumping Star Wars: Last Jedi off the list and moving ahead of The Avengers and Jurassic World. As strong as these projections are, Avatar 2 would still fall $100M short of the original…even with the benefit of a much higher average ticket price!



Click To Watch Trailer !




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