Published Jan 6, 2023
For theatrical exhibition, 2022 was a rollercoaster of emotion that found us feeling a bit desperate and scared Jan thru Apr, exhilarated and energized May thru Jul, giving way to frustration and disappointment Aug thru Dec. The year tallied $7.4B, up 65% from 2021 and 276% vs 2020 --- a nice post-global pandemic rebound. However, we projected the industry would hit $8.0B, so despite the year being 11% greater than the previous two years combined, it’s easy to feel a little short-changed.
Yes, there were some wonderful surprises this year, Top Gun: Maverick, Dr. Strange, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Everything Everywhere (for smaller markets, Where the Crawdads Sing, Elvis, Dog) and everything Fathom (The Chosen, Lifemark, I Heard the Bells, It’s A Wonderful Life, etc.).
But adding to the bitterness of the 2022 shortfall, is that to a great extent it looks to have been self-inflicted.
In Jan Warner Bros pulled Sesame Street from the lineup and moved it to HBO, in Mar Disney pulled Turning Red and streamed it on Disney+, and in Dec the highly anticipated sequel to Knives Out debuted on Netflix…all missed opportunities which had been factored into the $8.0B estimate for 2022.
Lightyear, DC Super Pets, and Strange World under-performed. Lightyear’s performance was particularly crushing, it was supposed to be THE summer animated film but only opened to $50M and go on to total $118M…Disney’s animated summer titles typically open to ~$120M and go on to total over $400M; Lightyear (couldn’t it at least have been titled Buzz Lightyear) alone shorted us at least $200M to $300M for the year. And since the beginning of time, audiences have had high expectations for catchy songs and lots of dancing from Disney kid films --- Lion King, Aladdin, Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Frozen --- both absent in Lightyear and Strange World.
Likely the most crippling, was the nagging lack of titles ALL YEAR. Each-and-every month, the number of “wide” releases (2,000+ screens) fell between 15% and 57% short of 2019, ending the year with a painful 38% less titles for theatres to work with and audiences to enjoy.
Add up the misfires and we would have easily pushed past the $8.0B mark, feeling much differently about the year falling 29% short of 2019 versus our actual minus 34%.
Okay, time to stop handwringing as to what 2022 coulda/shoulda been and turn our focus to 2023.
Current consensus by industry analysts places the 2023 boxoffice at between $8.5B and $9.0B, up 15% to 20% from 2022. Two key factors contributing to success: (1) release schedules returning to “normal”, bringing us more content and (2) some really great titles in the lineup, including, on a first pass, ~30 that should stretch beyond the $100M mark (in 2022 there were only 17).
Looking to Q1’23, key titles include A Man Called Otto, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Creed III, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, John Wick 4, Champions, and Dungeons and Dragons.
Looking a little further down the road, let’s get excited for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Fast X, The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, and Barbie.
Let's remember... “the most powerful person in Hollywood is the audience.”
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