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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DUMB MONEY (R)


Published Sep 13, 2023


Synopsis

Distributed By: Sony | Release Date: 9/15/23 (NY&LA), 9/29/23 (Wide) | Run Time: 104 Minutes

Drama|Comedy. Based on a true story. Everyday people flip the script on Wall Street and get rich by turning GameStop into one of the world's hottest companies. In the middle of everything is Keith Gill, a regular guy who starts it all by sinking his life savings into the stock. When his social media posts start blowing up, so does his life and the lives of everyone following him....…Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, America Ferrera, Pete Davidson, Nick Offerman


Screening Notes

Dumb Money is a good movie but I was disappointed. The story behind the movie is a rewarding power-of-the-people-trying-to-stick-it-to-the-man (David v Goliath or Mainstreet v Wall Street) true moment in time…watching investors travel a little too close to the sun battling over the semi-obscure GameStop stock [GME:NYSE] in 2021, was as entertaining as any of the scarce content available in theatres at the time. Paul Dano does a nice job as the dorky leader of the retail investor gang (aka “dumb money”), but I found the real scene stealers to be Rogan, Offerman, and D’Onofrio playing the big hedge fund managers…they were a hoot in their “straight-man”, elitist roles. My disappoint is two-fold. First, the heroes of this story are the everyday people, the “small guy” with a compelling story, so I was naturally hoping the movie would have broad moviegoer appeal. The movie does a great job of telling both sides of this crazy story, but the two sides are extreme and much of the dialogue is either insider Wall Street speak or nerdy, secret coded Reddit-user tongue. Both languages run the risk of leaving the “everyday moviegoer” confused and feeling like an outsider, possibly limiting the audience. Second, for true mass appeal, the movie should have been a PG13; I love a well-executed, well-placed F-bomb, but the filmmakers unnecessarily went a little too far…in this case, it distracts from the story and the R-rating will likely, again, limit the audience.


Boxoffice Estimate

Retail investors will certainly enjoy this film, but sadly they total only about 1.5M strong; financial advisors add another 250k; even if you add in everyone employed in all areas of the U.S. finance sector, that only tally’s ~7M people. My fear is, as good as the story is, the pool for the film just isn’t very deep. The recent years comp set of titles (which actually match up nicely) averages a $6.5M opening weekend and a $24M total. Giving some hope, over the past 7 years, the average R-rated film debuting in Sep has opened to $20M and totaled $54M. All said, my math points to the expansion release (WB 9/29) opening to an estimated $8M, with a range between $7M and $9M. The good news is, the comp set does yield a pretty solid multiple, so this film should yield a healthy 3.6x multiple, leading to a final gross estimated between $25M and $30M. A majority of the time, I absolutely disagree with a major studios strategy to limit the number of runs on the opening weekend…in this case, Sony’s decision to open slowly and nurture is a good one.



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